Coin Grader Summarized
There was a study where participants were fed a small amount of data to determine which sports team would make it to the finals. As they were fed more data their accuracy in predicting remained the same. Why?
This is because they began to use the excess data to fall into confirmation bias. Coin Grader's goal is the opposite. I reduce the data. To get straight to the point. There's also no guessing. It reports what already happened. As I ran the coin grader I found it reduced some of my confirmation bias. I was forced to broaden my view, it simply said, here's how it handled growth. This allowed me to get more accurate with future picks. I threw my research for company incompetence, fraud. To force acknowledge the market isn't black and white, that problems are all over the market. Incompetent companies fell much faster, perform much worse than legit companies.
The final addition was making it adaptive, never letting people go into the comfort zone for too long. Things will change over time, and so will the site. This is why I didn't include data prior to June 2017.  Information going too far back would not be helpful to the current market. To affirm everything worked I used coin grader to make money not only for myself, but my mining group for the past 8 months. It held up and outright outperformed YT channels, random comments sections. Not exactly a high bar. But leagues above the study where people had to guess which sports team would make it to the finals. I hope to pass on what made me successful onto others. To give people as place to go where word of mouth isn't the best source for investing.
Why not cover all coins?
Should you give equal time to companies that go no where? What about fraud, incompetence? Time is the most crucial component of life. We can't waste it watching every bad movie, buying every bad product. Just to make sure we're being equal (I'm aware there are a minority of people who do this.) If that were the norm for humans, we wouldn't have Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes. People want to know as quickly as possible what they are getting into. I decided based on the current market the cut off is the top 84 coins. When coins slipped below rank 80 this is often where most went to die. I included an expansion into 85-200 coins that out performed bit coin for that month.
Why are you skeptical on certain markets?
The vices, drugs, gambling, humanitarian, and other markets that lean hard on emotional appeal; are often risky investments. Anyone remember Solar Roadways, Kony 2012, Mighty #9? They all had one thing in common. Extreme emotional attachment. This results in people ignoring the reality. It gives companies a blank check on trust. I'm not saying avoid them. I'm saying I will hold them more accountable with investigations, data, performance.
Will you improve the UI?
Yes. But I want muscle memory to be retained. It's my goal to retain the layout. I used to work in the game industry, specifically MMOs. I watched them improve more, and more. Endless software patches. It got to a point where the games were radically different from their original incarnations. They went too far, and as a result consumers felt alienated, leaving forever.
Why did you inject your views, personal accounts into the glossary?
I could have copied the definitions verbatim. I could have linked to Wikipedia. Instead the decision was to give it a personality, humor, something people can relate to. It's a lot easier to remember the pros and cons of Marxism when you have a person giving their own accounts.
Passel instead of Volume?
When I found out some crypto companies can add in additional coins to combat inflation, I felt passel was a more accurate description of the coin volume. Originally the site design was intended to look like Axiom Verge. The main reason why you see strain instead of type, and missions instead of company goals. The organic red guts, bubbles probably would have turned away visitors.
I noticed Ubiq is all over the site.
I approached many crypto companies over the course of a few months. All of them liked the idea of a coin grader. That was encouraging. But they concluded my offer with, "It's too much work." The idea got rejected over and over. It made me wonder how legit the market was. When I was about to give up, I approached one last area. I worked for Ubiq in the past as one of their logo designers. After Xocel agreed. Their chat room on discord helped me greatly develop the site, check for errors. This would have been impossible otherwise, something this big needs peer review. Thank you Ubiq!
Will you only focus on past data?
There are plenty of sites, people that do a great job on reporting recent market movement. However, when you looking for refined data. There are a few places, but most are behind a paywall. Dollar Vigilante comes to mind. I want it to be available to everyone. Crypto can't grow if people are reliant on random Reddit posts, YT channels where they scream, "It's just entertainment dude." Every time they make god awful suggestions, with financial incentives (bribes) to lead you astray.
Integrity?
I list the formulas and data up front. I'll show you with math, keep it simple so you can run the numbers anytime. As for donations. I got into crypto early with a mining group. No need to give me a penny if you don't want to, I'm financially set. The money donated goes directly to hardware, my work, and employees. If it does really well I'll use it for full time staff. If not, the site updates won't stop until June 2018. Why June? That's when I go back to my full time job. If I can hand it off by then, it'll continue. If not, that's fine.
Why did you exclude Bitconnect and other coins from the markets tally?
Bitconnect was fraud. As of this writing the hammer finally came down on them. I made the right move not reporting them in the markets growth section. I will not always spot the fraud. Any significant donations will go to hiring full time investigators. Even if that doesn't happen the obvious violators will be excluded. With the current markets graph it was only a few companies removed from the total. I expect that trend going forward.
What would staff do?
Investigators will allow me to get more data on the top 84. How will that happen? They talk to staff, visit their forums, chat rooms, check on their business proposals. Even dig into public legal records, background checks on owners. Then the report is summarized into possible fraud, incompetence for the site. I want it to be full time, hires to be accredited, paid by weekly quotas with charts, pages of data filled in. If not, I'll continue doing all the work. /:
Editor/advisor is responsible for crunching all the math, making sure it makes sense. Look for errors, fix them. Another straight forward job, and also full time. They would work in conjunction with the investigator(s). Finally the UI designer. This would be a part time job. Once the overhauls are complete it would be in my hands, or the editors to maintain. Otherwise I do all the work. /:
Will you list how much is made in donations?
Recent tax laws in the USA have made things, interesting. I will run it by my lawyer if it's successful, if I can hire staff. If I use it to hire someone, yes I'll report budget. It will be pay range of said job(s). If it goes to computer hardware, yes I'll list that, show photos, videos. For tax reasons that stuff will definitely be listed! Money donated mostly goes to fiat, USD. I'll wait a few days if coins are in a crazy dip cycle.
How much do you work on the site weekly?
Currently 50+ hours a week. When all the data is filled in, 40+ hours a week for the end and beginning of each month. It's a full time job, at least for the first 3 months. Thus the reason I'm asking for donations.
Will you ever take Ethereum, other popular coins?
No. I made my picks, Ubiq, Komodo, BTC for their security, affordability, stability, potential. Ethereum is very popular and will likely continue to have issues as it transitions into Casper. While Dash is a much more stable company. I feel they are too much of an opposite to Ethereum, not taking enough risk.
Phase I Explained
I use a 3+ month time span. End of each month. I started in June when the market got serious funding, talent, progress. Unless things change I will use CMC's ranking by market cap. If any other system was used, it would incentivize dying, failed coins. The most active are on top. The least active fall down. Missions is the company's primary product/service. Strain is the type of company. If I rank it yellow, it means it's got a fraud or incompetence alert. You can still invest, but keep in mind it could nose dive regardless of market health. Grey means the coin is dying or has died.
Phase II Explained
This is all the data crunched into a letter grade. Refer to the picture on the front page. That's the formula I use. All coins start at 50 points. As time goes on I'll add more data points like revenue. Due to the fact most countries have made crypto illegal, the owners have to hide their numbers, even identities in some cases. So the grader has to be generalized until it's approved by governments. You don't want to get too specific, because not enough information is made available. This will improve as laws, regulations are put in place. In the meantime everyone's conclusion has a strong dash of guessing involved.
The core is simple. Did your $1,000 investment in said coin grow better than bitcoin? Did it do well in the rankings? Missions mostly exists to punish fraud like Bitconnect. If it has a -20 it's screaming at you, "Hey! You should RESEARCH THIS COIN heavily before buying!" Passel is volume. For example it's easier to sell 10, Ethereum coins than 300,000 Verge. Especially if that coin you're holding isn't very active in trades on the exchanges. Finally I add or subtract all the variables from 50. Did it perform well on the market over 6+ months? If yes, a high letter grade with math to support the conclusion. Some opinion mixed in for spotting fraud, incompetence.
Mining Explained
Every month I'll list the best coins to mine. Not just for money made, but how well said coins performed on the market. I use GTX 1060's because they are a good entry point, low energy, durable. Part picker on the side gives you an idea of the cost every month. Hardware will change every year. For now I don't use Radeon because they output far more heat, and are very hard to find on the market. Energy cost was not calculated due to the extreme differences across the globe.
Pumps Explained
Same concept as Phase I. It's expanded from rank 85-200. This is where companies compete for survival. If a coin falls into this area it has a window to pull out. If it falls past rank 200, odds are very high it will continue to fall down, and one day die. Of 85-200 I only included the coins that grew in grey, and normal colors if they bested BTC's precent gains. But why so much decline? A few new cryptos on average comes out every day. 1-2 make it onto the top 50 every week. This pushes older coins down the list every time this occurs. I recommend finding a sell point if it starts a death spiral down the list, ideally before rank 201.
Monthly Reviews Explained
After half a year has passed I compile all the data. High gain month to high gain month or vice versa for a proper measurement. Here you can see what outgrew BTC. In the first run it was only 28 coins. I included a simple graph. You can see it's peak and where the best purchase point was. On the bottom I show you how much $1k would have gotten you in that time frame.
Top Markets Explained
A lot of people said the gambling coins were good money. But the markets section says the banking coins were the second best, gambling funding shrank in 2017. It gives you a clear picture where the money is going. It helped me with my picks, which are mostly Blockchain. Companies that solve multiple problems on the market with software.
Will you use different languages?
In the future that would be great, depending on donation amounts raised. Use Google Translate in the meantime.
Mobile, 4k, 16:10 resolution problems?
Multiple resolutions will be incorporated after the site is done. Xocel gave me a resource site to correct this problem. In the meantime 1080p is the recommended resolution.
Practice Section?
I have someone in mind to help me develop this section. It will take real data and tell you if your pick did well over time. If you look at current market numbers you'll know. I may only include coins ranked 300-400 or scramble the names. For the time being I want to complete the site, then when everything is done, come back to this.
Will you add more to tips?
Ideally I want more helpful tips from successful people in the crypto market. To expand it's size a bit more. I also want to include a podcast, or audio files.
What is Project AV?
Part of it is a 1 year summary June 2017 to June 2018. I'll include the companies that ended up making it to the top 84, and were around in June 2017. Companies that didn't make the cut, fell down below rank 84 will not make it. If possible this includes data directly from each company, staff size, revenue, quotas hit. The second half is a secret project. A special surprise to fulfill my promise, to keep the coin grader unique, to stick to the data that benefits the market.
Roadmap?
Feed in the remaining data. Grammar check. I want more peer review, spot errors, fix them. Then work on the UI. When the UI is done I'll transition the site into grounded code that works on multiple resolutions. If donations pull in a lot, I'll hire staff. If it's really good I'll add in multiple languages. Please keep in mind I'm just one guy. Thanks, Arigato, Gracias!
 
  • Written by: Jonathan Murphy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
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